2014 – Province of British Columbia (Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations)
The report Simulating the Effects of Sea Level Rise and Climate Change on Fraser River Flood Scenarios estimates Fraser River water levels in 140 possible flood scenarios in the Lower Mainland (105 freshet, 35 winter flood scenarios). The work is based on hydraulic modelling and reflects different Fraser River flow rates, sea level rise projections and climate change scenarios.
A key finding is that the magnitude and frequency of floods are expected to increase significantly because of sea level rise and climate change. By the end of the century, a one in 50-year flood could be similar in magnitude to floods that currently have a return period of once in 200 to 500 years. The study focused on 170 kilometres along the lower Fraser River, from Hope to the river’s mouth, including major tributaries that are affected by backwater during freshet flooding. The area includes the densely populated Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley regions.
This report is one of a number released by the BC Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations in recent years to assist local authorities with infrastructure planning and flood mitigation. This report is also part of the Ministry’s contribution to Phase 1 of the Lower Mainland Flood Management Strategy.