Fraser Basin Council

2014 – Province of British Columbia (Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations)

The report Simulating the Effects of Sea Level Rise and Climate Change on Fraser River Flood Scenarios estimates Fraser River water levels in 140 possible flood scenarios in the Lower Mainland (105 freshet, 35 winter flood scenarios). The work is based on hydraulic modelling and reflects different Fraser River flow rates, sea level rise projections and climate change scenarios.

A key finding is that the magnitude and frequency of floods are expected to increase significantly because of sea level rise and climate change. By the end of the century, a one in 50-year flood could be similar in magnitude to floods that currently have a return period of once in 200 to 500 years. The study focused on 170 kilometres along the lower Fraser River, from Hope to the river’s mouth, including major tributaries that are affected by backwater during freshet flooding. The area includes the densely populated Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley regions.

This report is one of a number released by the BC Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations in recent years to assist local authorities with infrastructure planning and flood mitigation. This report is also part of the Ministry’s contribution to Phase 1 of the Lower Mainland Flood Management Strategy.

About ReTooling for Climate Change

The ReTooling for Climate Change website is a project of the Fraser Basin Council to support local governments and First Nations in BC in preparing for climate change adaptation. The site is funded through the BC Regional Adaptation Collaborative (BC RAC), a partnership program of the Fraser Basin Council and the BC Ministry of Environment – Climate Action Secretariat, with funding from Natural Resources Canada and other in-kind contributions.

Find out more about the Fraser Basin Council and the BC RAC at

We want to hear from you

Share your ideas and suggestions for new resource links to , Senior Program Manager, at the Fraser Basin Council.

Also worth a visit

On this site, you’ll find links to many helpful websites on climate change adaptation.

For steps communities can take to mitigate climate change, check out the Climate Action Toolkit website.